Africa Economics Update Uganda hikes rates as inflation spikes, policy to stay tight The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike its policy interest rate by a further 100bp, to 17.0%, today appears to be a response to the sharp pick-up in inflation in September. The bulk of the monetary... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes likely in Sri Lanka next year The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today kept its deposit and lending rates unchanged at 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively, despite headline inflation having been negative for the last three months. This... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Finance Minister Aso the Bank of Japan’s new oracle? Finance Minister Aso has been downplaying the chances of further monetary stimulus. But given that Japan’s government has previously argued that “surprise” is a key element of effective monetary... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation targeting policy not enough Canada’s inflation target agreement between the Federal government and the Bank of Canada is up for renewal next year and the conventional wisdom is that it doesn’t need fixing. In contrast, we think... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s tightening cycle to be brief Chile’s decision to raise interest rates last night is likely to be followed by another hike soon, but the bigger picture is that the tightening cycle is likely to be short. Meanwhile, although the... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation: Exit ahead The latest warnings that deflation is a major cause for concern in Emerging Asia are wide of the mark. In fact, we think inflation will be back in positive territory across the entire region by early... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Return to deflation should be brief Headline inflation fell below zero in a number of major economies in September, but we expect the latest bout of deflation to be short-lived. That said, the further drop in inflation expectations in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE expansion coming soon if not this month Recent comments from Governing Council members suggest that the ECB may not be ready to increase its policy support when it meets on 22nd October. But President Draghi is likely to reiterate concerns... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates before end-2015 The recent rebound in the rupiah was never likely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen policy, and today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on prolonged hold Against a backdrop of gradual recovery in the domestic economy, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates on hold for the... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to be more guarded against global risks We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
