Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki begins hiking cycle Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya hikes rates to shore up shilling Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee hiked its key interest rate by 150bps today, a clear attempt to signal that the bank is serious about curbing high inflation and protecting the rapidly-depreciating... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hikes back on table amid post-election uncertainty The Turkish lira has stabilised today, but it remains vulnerable to further weakness. Faced with another leg down, we think the central bank might in the first instance lower the FX depo rate or scale... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1) Although Iceland’s economy contracted in Q1, the continued strength of domestic demand means that the central bank is still likely to start raising interest rates at tomorrow’s policy meeting. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update MERS raises economic risks in Korea If Asia’s experience with SARS is anything to go by, the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Korea could have a short-lived but quite sharp negative impact on Korea’s economy. We... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would the Philippines look like without Aquino? With just one year to go before presidential elections in the Philippines, attention is turning to who will replace the current president, Benigno Aquino. The current president deserves much credit... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices has eased risk of deflation The rebound in global oil prices since January means it is all but certain that headline inflation in advanced economies will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. For most countries, this has... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation risks to keep MPC on hold throughout 2015 With the UK in deflation, growth indicators turning south and the Greek saga casting a shadow over the outlook, the MPC’s decision to keep interest rates on hold is likely to have been unanimous again... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates; attention now turns to Inflation Report The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 13.75% was expected, but the fact that the accompanying statement was left unchanged from the last... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Preparing the ground for rate cuts We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will use the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 11 th June and the publication of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement to further prepare... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook for periphery’s exporters is improving The depreciation of the euro over the past year or so appears to be finally starting to help euro-zone exporters. The latest data show that annual growth in euro-zone export values picked up to 7.3%... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
