Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we now in a global tightening cycle? There is an increasingly common view that we are on the cusp of a global policy tightening cycle. However, while we no longer expect many central banks to loosen policy further, we expect interest... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC tightening triggered by Fed action People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made clear at the National People’s Congress that the trend would be towards further monetary tightening over coming months. So today’s decision by the PBOC to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Policy outlook favours local currency over dollar bonds After raising rates yesterday, we expect the Fed to continue tightening the screws and hike by more than investors are expecting over the next couple of years. However, we think that few emerging... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a more hawkish tone The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed tightened policy again, highlights the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fed gives Turkish MPC cover to tackle inflation problem The Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed’s rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today and struck a cautious tone in its statement which followed the meeting. Looking ahead, we think that worries about inflation and concerns about... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and Governor Kuroda remained cautious about the prospect of hitting the inflation target. While the consensus is... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank follows the Fed The People’s Bank has followed the Fed in raising the interest rate it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But we believe that tighter policy in China continues to be primarily... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets are overestimating the chance of rate hikes next year While there is a consensus among economists and financial markets alike that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep rates on hold at 1.75% when it meets next Thursday 23 rd March, we believe that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia will not follow the Fed’s lead For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which will determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2016) While GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than most had expected, this was largely the result of temporary factors and as such we expect growth in New Zealand to bounce back early... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
