UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% The Bank of Canada’s new-found optimism in the economy means that there is a risk it could raise interest rates very soon, but we don’t think a rate hike next week to 0.75%, from 0.50%, is a foregone... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves unlikely to prompt ECB to delay QE tapering The euro’s rise has not yet been sharp enough to cause a significant tightening of monetary conditions and we doubt that it will dissuade the ECB from tapering QE next year. But a further appreciation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank drops easing bias from forward guidance By indicating that it no longer expects to cut interest rates, the Riksbank has taken a small step toward monetary policy normalisation. While the Bank indicated that it will continue to guard against... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s fears about household indebtedness persist The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting today and retained its fairly optimistic tone on the outlook for economic growth in the... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to step up the pace of easing caught the consensus off guard, but supports our view that the policy rate will be cut by more than most expect this year. We... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank can’t ignore low inflation The Bank of Canada’s recent hawkishness doesn’t fit with the weaker core inflation data. Amid further warnings from the BIS about the dangers of sticking too closely to inflation targets when asset... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Bond yields rise on prospect of tighter global monetary policy Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies increased in June, in line with global market moves following major central bank speeches that prompted investors to bring forward their expectations... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? ECB President Draghi’s speech earlier this week prompted investors to re-assess the outlook for monetary policy. They now seem to expect the Bank to raise interest rates around the middle of next year... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slow wage growth to persist despite strong job growth While the recent run of positive news on the health of the Australian labour market is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t alter the bigger picture that there is still plenty of spare capacity. This... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to press on with hikes; others in no hurry to follow We still think the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates two more times this year and to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. But the ECB will probably not start tapering its asset... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
