UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape The headlines this week have concentrated on the negative impact that Brexit has had on sterling and confidence, as well as the temporary suspension of trading in a number of commercial property funds... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis? There is no easy solution to the euro-zone’s banking problems, but the risks of doing nothing are too large for policymakers to simply sit on their hands. We think that policymakers will find a way to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What options does Taiwan’s central bank have left? Taiwan’s central bank is running out of good options as it looks to boost an economy which has struggled badly over the past year. We see little prospect of a decent recovery in the coming quarters. 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Why wait? The relatively calm market reaction to the EU referendum might suggest that there is no urgency for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver additional policy stimulus at its policy meeting on... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016) The modest fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in June, to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, hides the fact that core inflation pressures are creeping up. Coupled with continued pressure on the peso... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery loses some momentum in Q2 The latest data survey data suggest that growth slowed further in the second quarter, ahead of the referendum. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS composite PMI ended June at a level consistent with no quarterly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jun.) The surprise increase in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month could be the result of the People’s Bank marking to market the value of some reserve assets at the end of June, in... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast Despite an apparent return to below-potential GDP growth and the financial market turmoil triggered by the UK's decision to leave the EU, we expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth starting to slow June’s survey data confirmed that GDP growth in Q2 is very unlikely to have matched Q1’s 0.6% quarterly expansion, with both the EC Survey and the PMI appearing consistent with around a 0.3% rise... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
