Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further reductions to Board’s inflation forecasts still needed The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy yet again at today’s meeting. But the Board’s inflation forecasts remain far too optimistic even after renewed downgrades. We reiterate our... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December Given the continued weakness of core inflation, we now expect the Fed to delay the next interest rate hike until December. Accordingly, while there is a chance that the statement following next week’s... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Strong growth, weak inflation We expect the current period of strong economic growth in advanced economies to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. In many countries the... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the government reappoint Mr Kuroda? While inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, Governor Kuroda deserves credit for a number of radical policy changes. His reappointment would therefore underline the government’s... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, next move will be a cut The CBK’s decision to keep its key rate on hold signals its willingness to look through the current period of above-target inflation. With inflation having now peaked, we expect that the next move... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation forecasts to underline case for loose policy The Bank of Japan will probably upgrade its assessment of the health of the economy at the upcoming meeting. But downward revisions to the Board’s inflation forecasts will underline that policy... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (May) Peruvian economic activity rebounded strongly in May as the effects of severe flooding at the start of the year started to fade and we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months. 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy? Markets focused this week on supposedly dovish comments in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress, but in truth she did little more than repeat the existing Fed line. As long as... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering? Government bond yields have risen recently by more in Germany than in some “peripheral” countries of the euro-zone. This has happened even though the sell-off in bonds has been caused by concerns that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
