RBA Watch The RBA’s criteria for further rate cuts haven’t been met…yet The turmoil in financial markets, the stagnation in employment growth and the recent rises in bank lending rates to businesses are unlikely to have spooked the Reserve Bank of Australia by enough to... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weakening economy suggests Norges Bank will act in March The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will negative JGB yields result in an operating loss for the BoJ? JGB yields would have to fall by another 40bp to wipe out the Bank of Japan’s profits, and they would have to remain that negative for many years to erode its capital base. However, that would be a... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle just starting The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) has delivered a surprise by hiking both its policy interest rates by 50bp. Against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, building price pressures and currency... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut one more time Bank Indonesia today cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%. We believe that one more cut is likely in this cycle. Today’s statement hints that, as long as the recent market calm... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. 16) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico responds to market turmoil Expectations of lower inflation have probably played only a minor role in the fall in Treasury inflation compensation – the gap between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China turn itself around? The inept response by China’s policymakers to the pressures of the last few months has rightly diminished confidence in their ability to handle the structural transition China faces in the years ahead... 17th February 2016 · 14 mins read
