India Chart Pack Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited A vote by the UK to leave the European Union in tomorrow's referendum would be unlikely to have much impact on India's economy. Indian exports to the UK are equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, so... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ become more flexible? Doing away with a specific timeframe for reaching 2% inflation would sow doubts about policymakers’ commitment to the 2%-target and would be a major step backwards. Instead, more stimulus is needed to... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hints at further unconventional easing Hungary’s MPC made it clear today that further interest rate cuts are unlikely. And while the Council hinted at more “unconventional” policy loosening, we doubt that this would have a significant... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs? Today’s ruling by the German constitutional court leaves the ECB free to implement its long-awaited OMT programme, if deemed necessary. And a possible trigger for OMTs – Brexit – might be just a few... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows out of China have stabilised in recent months and policymakers have responded by once again easing restrictions on cross-border flows. But outflows are likely to pick up again if the... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank lending rates have fallen sharply since policymakers introduced negative interest rates in January. One consequence is that bank profits have started to moderate from high levels. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a second consecutive month in May, although it remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year. Further ahead, with economic growth... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor The key US event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. She will be testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer Following the FOMC meeting earlier this week, we have lowered our forecasts for the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 and 2018. But two key themes remain unchanged: global monetary policy will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation remained well below the Fed’s target in May, but base effects will push it well above 2% by early next year. Both headline and core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
