Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly EU referendum will delay rate hike, but not until 2018 The draft EU deal published last week has left the “Brexit” referendum looking likely to occur in June this year. What’s more, on the basis of the latest polls, it looks set to be a close vote. That... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil price falls will depress inflation for some time yet Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget proposals could stoke price pressures Inflation is likely to have risen at the start of 2016 on account of a further small rise in food inflation. Looking ahead, the FY16/17 budget is likely to incorporate a significant rise in public... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will negative rates lower bank lending rates? The introduction of a negative interest rate on a small portion of excess reserves has already reduced corporate bond yields, and we think that banks may also lower lending rates somewhat. However... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA holds its nerve on global economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the chances of a near-term reduction in interest rates remains slim. Nonetheless, there are a number of factors that... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Dovish message from MPC, but 2016 rate hike still likely Today’s “Super Thursday” announcements were generally dovish but, true to form, Governor Carney gave mixed messages, striking a more hawkish tone at the press conference. While market expectations... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK weathers market mayhem well so far Financial markets got off to a tumultuous start to the year, but the economy has begun 2016 on a slightly stronger footing. The Markit/CIPS surveys point to quarterly GDP growth of around 0.6%, a... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation in January, of 9.6% y/y, was partly driven by administered price hikes and what is likely to be a temporary unwinding of the impact of the decline in global... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates unchanged in 2016 The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today came as no surprise. With the economy gradually recovering and the government stepping up efforts to support... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
