Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts The negative economic spillovers on Central and South Eastern Europe from the UK’s vote for Brexit are likely to be smaller than many fear, but they will still drag on activity in the region... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC announces action to support bank lending Coming after Governor Carney’s initial statement following the referendum to “take all necessary steps to meet its responsibilities for monetary and financial stability”, Project Reassure continued... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets The past month has brought aggressive monetary easing in a handful of frontier markets, and we think others will follow suit over the rest of this year. Cuts in policy interest rates this month in... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Taiwan? With the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures very low, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today cuts its discount rate by a further 12.5 basis points to 1.375%. Given the poor outlook for... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA region set for weakest growth since the 1980s This year looks set to be the toughest for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa in almost three decades. The Gulf countries will continue to tighten fiscal policy in response to low oil... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit may not delay the next US rate hike for very long The markets are probably right to price in additional policy easing from the Bank of England and the ECB in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, the consensus is almost... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How much has “Brexit” changed prospects for monetary policy? In the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum, central bankers have concentrated on providing verbal reassurance, but they may soon back their words with action. We think the Bank of England will... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would FX intervention halt the strengthening of the yen? If worries about a deepening crisis in the EU drive another surge of safe haven flows into Japan, even direct foreign exchange intervention would probably not prevent the yen from strengthening... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What to make of Korea’s stimulus package? The Korean government today announced plans for a fiscal stimulus package worth about 20trn won (equivalent to 1.3% of GDP) in response to growing headwinds facing the economy. The decision follows... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions The latest monetary data are consistent with a gradual slowdown in advanced economies, but do not point to a collapse in growth. Looking ahead, global central banks are likely to respond to the UK... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy approaching full employment Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, the incoming monthly data point to a big rebound in second-quarter GDP growth and we still expect growth for 2016 as a whole to be 2.0%. The UK’s vote to... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
