Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is monetary policy really so accommodative? It is often assumed that monetary policy is highly accommodative simply because nominal interest rates are very low. But if the neutral real interest rate has fallen, monetary policy may not be as... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks The surprise outcome of the General Election and the MPC’s unexpectedly tight vote on interest rates have triggered only a muted market reaction. Admittedly, trade-weighted sterling fell to its lowest... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hike is far from a done deal The Bank of Canada mentioned this week that the economy is gathering momentum and indicated that it is considering hiking interest rates soon, prompting financial markets to quickly raise bets on a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note Relatively hawkish comments from the Russian central bank today appear to be aimed at dampening hopes that the pace of monetary easing might be stepped up. But while the policy rate is likely to be... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still to convince the markets of further rate hikes Fed officials continue to anticipate one more rate hike in the second half of this year, but markets are not even convinced that the Fed will hike rates again within the next two years. The Fed has... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China awaits damp squib of MSCI inclusion MSCI will announce on Tuesday whether it will include China’s domestically-listed A-shares in its benchmark indices. It has chosen not to in the past on concerns over market access and official... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to panic over rapid credit growth in the Philippines The recent acceleration in credit growth in the Philippines is unlikely to lead the central bank (BSP) to hike interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. However, it could prompt the BSP to introduce... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Central bank holds rates, but further cuts to come Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% following its latest MPC meeting, but with inflation set to remain below target and no sign of a turnaround in the economy, we... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten any time soon The Bank of Japan today turned more upbeat in its assessment of economic conditions, but Governor Kuroda remained cautious on the prospect of hitting the inflation target. With inflation set to... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ won’t be perturbed by the weak GDP figures Although the first-quarter GDP growth figures were notably weaker than the RBNZ had expected, the Bank will almost certainly keep the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 1.75% at its monetary policy... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to cut interest rate forecast The Norges Bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting in June, but we think that it will revise its rate forecast down. After all, while economic growth has strengthened since the... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes surprisingly hawkish tone While an interest rate hike in the UK within the next few months still looks unlikely, the hawkish tone of June’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision and minutes supports our view that... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
