Japan Economics Update Will negative rates hamper the BOJ’s ability to buy JGBs? With longer-term interest rates falling alongside short-term rates, the introduction of negative rates will not hamper the Bank of Japan’s ability to purchase large amounts of government bonds. Nor... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How low can policy rates go? The Bank of Japan last week became the fifth central bank to impose negative rates and we now expect it to lower its deposit rate to -0.7% by the end of this year. If policy eventually needed to be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far and how fast will inflation and interest rates rise? The tumble in inflation from the most recent peak of just over 5% in late-2011 to an average of 0% in 2015 has provided a welcome boost to the economy. But with near-zero rates of inflation now in the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, no change likely in 2016 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA feeling the heat from China slowdown While the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged the threat posed by a weaker global economy when it left interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, we don’t think it went far enough. With the outlook for... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to cut rates to -1.0% Amid concerns about the sustainability of its large-scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan now looks likely to rely increasingly on lowering the interest rate on central bank reserves to deliver... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further cuts in interest rates likely to be required The introduction of negative interest rates at today’s BoJ meeting will likely be followed by further cuts in coming months. The upshot is that the yen should continue to weaken against the dollar. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tradables inflation is only half the story It’s odd that the financial markets placed so much emphasis on the rise in Australia’s tradables inflation rate in the fourth quarter of last year when this was more than offset by a fall in non... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, devaluation increasingly likely The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25% today as an influx of financial support has eased immediate concerns over the country’s external position and... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to signal rate expectations are too low The messages from this month’s Inflation Report will probably be pretty mixed. A lower profile for growth and inflation over the next few quarters should cement expectations that an interest rate rise... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
