Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, for now The Bank of Korea (BoK) today unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its second straight meeting, and the accompanying statement and governor’s press conference suggest the central... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rising political risks shouldn’t derail recovery Political risks are rising across Latin America. In Colombia and Mexico, left-leaning candidates have consolidated their leads in opinion polls ahead of presidential elections later this year, while... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation edging closer to 2% target The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures have trended higher and are close to the 2% inflation target. Despite the drop in headline inflation in January, the core inflation data will... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets still underestimating pace of rate hikes Financial markets are now pricing in a 60% probability of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raising Bank Rate by a further 25bps in May, up from around 40% at the start of the year. But we still... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Dec.) Although our New Zealand Activity Proxy declined in December, the decent rise over the fourth quarter as a whole suggests that GDP growth accelerated at the end of last year. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still setting the scene for cautious, gradual normalisation The minutes of the ECB’s January meeting indicated just how cautiously the Bank wants to communicate and carry out its monetary policy normalisation. The ECB looks set to revisit its forward guidance... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to push back guidance on rate rises In light of weak inflation data earlier this week and the dovishness of today’s Riksbank minutes, we expect the Bank to signal at April’s meeting that it will raise interest rates later than its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the BoJ’s 2% inflation target achievable? On past form, capacity shortages alone will never be enough to generate 2% inflation in Japan. The prerequisite for faster price gains is that inflation expectations among households and firms also... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift? The recent changeover at the helm of Tunisia’s central bank has raised hopes of a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. But the new governor is likely to run in to resistance from the government... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Local markets unable to escape global rout Indian financial markets have not been able to escape the recent turmoil in global markets, with equities dropping sharply and the rupee weakening against the US dollar. Looking ahead, we expect... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes reiterate inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) February policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with core... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
