Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now News that Egypt is on the brink of receiving an IMF deal (and the subsequent easing of pressure on the pound) provided the central bank with a window of opportunity to pause its tightening cycle today... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will the MPC deliver this time around? With market participants having been disappointed by the Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction in July, expectations of a bolder and broader package of measures at next week’s meeting have grown. With... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update QE to get a new lease of life? We expect the ECB and Bank of Japan to step up their asset purchases a bit in the coming months and the Bank of England (BoE) to resume its QE programme after a four-year break. Indeed, “global QE”... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its deposit and lending rates by 50bp each in whatwas Indrajit Coomaraswamy’s first monetary policy meeting as governor. With credit growing at... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors turn positive on industrials After dipping in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), the prices of most industrial metals have rallied strongly since. They have shrugged off disappointing economic news out of China... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil turning the corner The downturn in Latin America appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter of this year. Our GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy contracted by 1.2% y/y in Q2, compared to 1.5% y/y in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) June’s data suggest that euro-zone money and credit growth are still too weak to provide much support to the economy. While the full effects of ECB stimulus introduced in June are yet to be felt, we... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The CPI inflation data for the second quarter makes next Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting a closer call than had looked likely, but we still think the RBA will pull the trigger and cut interest rates to 1... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest rate hike is a belated attempt to regain control over the country’s weakening currency. We expect that the bank will tighten by at least another 200bps later this... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts The Hungarian MPC seemed to pour cold water on the prospect of additional monetary policy easing in the statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting. However, we think the Council is still too... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Korea’s growth picked up in the second quarter of 2016, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters against a backdrop of mounting cyclical and structural headwinds. 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent BoJ from easing An imminent shift from fiscal tightening to loosening has reduced the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus. However, the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate since the start of... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
