Fed to begin reversing QE and ECB to set out taper plans

The US Fed is still on track to start shrinking its balance sheet in the coming month or two, and we think it will raise rates again in December. Meanwhile, the ECB will probably announce in October that it will wind down its asset purchases during 2018, but we do not expect it to begin raising rates until 2019. And the Bank of England will probably begin to increase interest rates around the second quarter of next year. This would leave the Bank of Japan as the only major advanced-economy central bank with its current policies unchanged.