Global Markets Update What next for the dollar? We have reduced the amount by which we forecast the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen this year, but increased the amount by which we project that it will appreciate against sterling... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts in Malaysia unlikely despite SRR cut The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today to cuts its statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratio is not a signal that interest rates cuts are on the way. Worries about currency weakness and... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates inside its new corridor Large injections of liquidity into the banking system by the People’s Bank (PBOC) have grabbed headlines today. The moves have more to do with offsetting the usual spike in liquidity demand ahead of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bank starts contemplating more rate cuts While recent events have increased the chances that interest rates will be cut from 2.5% now to 2.0%, as we have been expecting for some time, we think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada surprises market with no rate cut The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key policy rate at 0.50% today doesn’t mean that further rate cuts are off the table entirely. The Bank sounded far more downbeat about the economic outlook... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold despite higher inflation While the Central Bank of Kenya held rates on hold today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to tighten policy by around 50bp later this year as inflation remains above target. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
