Asia Economic Outlook Growth to slow from a five-year high Growth in Emerging Asia reached a five-year high in 2017 but we think that it has now peaked and will slow gradually over the next couple of years. The main headwind will come from the export sector... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound The announcement on Friday by Morocco’s central bank that it will move to a more flexible exchange rate regime has raised concerns that the dirham will follow the path of currencies in the rest of... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A busy month for central banks The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Bank lending has continued to slow. However, this doesn’t seem to reflect a tightening in bank lending attitudes, which remain very accommodative. What’s more, overall borrowing by the private sector... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in December. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) Swedish policymakers will be discouraged by the fact that the decline in inflation in December was due to slower inflation for domestic goods and services. But with resource utilisation strong... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast will the BoJ reduce its asset purchases? A reduction in the size of the BoJ’s JGB auction moved markets this week. This wasn’t policy tapering in an effort to reduce stimulus: the Bank now only buys what is needed to maintain the yield... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households to be a weak spot in 2018 The Saudi government looks set to loosen fiscal policy this year which should support a pick-up in economic growth. However, as we explain in this Watch, households won’t be net beneficiaries from... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate last night by 25bp to 3.00% and, while the statement didn’t give much away regarding future moves, we still think there’s room for another 25bp cut in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rest of the world catches up with Australia 2018 may be the year that the Australian economy fails to grow at a much faster pace than the majority of its peers and its interest rate premium is wiped out. This may mean that 10-year bond yields... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press conference highlighted that a hawkish faction exists on the Council. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs Our indicators suggest that, while financial risks in EMs have diminished over the past couple of years, pockets of vulnerability exist in several countries including Turkey, Hong Kong and Singapore. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery de-synchronise in 2018? While the global economy is set to grow strongly again in 2018, the recovery is likely to de-synchronise somewhat as China slows before the US, and Europe remains strong. This could have important... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings A Bloomberg report that Chinese officials are considering halting purchases of US government debt triggered a sell-off in the US Treasury market today. In fact, China has not been buying US debt for... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
