Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in December The Bank of Japan today signalled that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further and we’re pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December. 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Sep. 2024) The lack of any reduction to policy rates today, despite the clear economic case for doing so, underscores the extent to which the PBOC remains constrained by concerns about bank profitability and... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to match Fed’s bumper rate cut We think SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will probably use his last meeting to once again surprise markets by cutting the policy rate by 50bp to 0.75%. Policymakers will be unhappy with the franc’s recent... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate. 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put... 19th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus... 19th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy... 19th September 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.'24) 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE stresses rate cuts will be gradual, but rates may still fall to 3% By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and will continue to cut interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one more 25... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, were slightly more dovish than last month, but there are no clear signs to... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19 Sep. 2024) By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and is cutting interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one further 25bps cut... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
