Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting... 11th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC... 11th September 2024 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update Is gold priced for perfection? With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2024) Brazil’s headline inflation dropped back to 4.2% y/y in August, but there was yet another increase in underlying services inflation which sets the stage for an interest rate hike at next week’s policy... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in August, alongside the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week, mean that Banxico is on track to lower its policy rate... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
