Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs could be the next to hike? We doubt that any other major EM central bank will imminently follow Colombia in kicking off hiking cycles, although a strengthening of inflation pressures in parts of Central Europe (Czechia and... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Warsh's QT wouldn't enable US rate cuts The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will rise to 2.5% over coming decade We now believe that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to 2.5% during the 2030s as inflation settles at higher levels, potential growth picks up and a shift in incentives alters the balance between... 2nd February 2026 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong housing market bolsters case for RBA hikes Australia’s house price rally maintained solid momentum in January, while growth in advertised rents accelerated further. With the housing sector likely to feed inflationary pressures for a while to... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 26) Colombia’s central bank delivered a larger-than-expected 100bp interest rate hike, to 10.25%, at today’s meeting and the hiking cycle has further to run as policymakers try to get ahead of the... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Direction of next rate move depends on timeframe Heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook has the Bank leaving all options on the table. While we think the policy rate’s next move will be upwards and not come until 2027, any change before then... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh faces an uphill battle at the Fed There was “broad support” among the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75% at this week’s meeting. Non-voting participants, according to Chair Jerome Powell... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency boost, rate meetings, Costa Rica votes Latin American economies stand out as potential beneficiaries of the fall in the dollar this week. A the margin, it will help to bring down inflation and may make central banks more confident about... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh a relatively safe choice President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is a relatively safe choice for investors, with Warsh’s prior hawkish views counteracting concerns he might morph into a full-blown... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger pound helpful for BoE, but rising oil price is a risk While the pound's recent appreciation against the US dollar doesn't materially change the outlook for UK CPI inflation, the Bank of England will welcome a bit more disinflationary pressure. But one... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget, RBI take centre stage after historic EU trade deal After the announcement this week of the long-awaited India-EU trade deal, attention will quickly shift back to domestic policy. The Union Budget on Sunday will reveal how the Finance Ministry will... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
