UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response RENGO 2026 Shunto Pay Request The wage requests unveiled by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) today suggest that this year’s spring wage negotiations will result in a pay hike of similar magnitude as last year. 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The decision by Poland’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% came as a surprise given the inflationary impact of this week’s spike in oil and gas prices. But in spite of the clear... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... 4th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2025) Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia. 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb 26) China’s economy expanded by just 3.1% in 2025. We expect growth to remain subdued this year too. While the recent change in US tariffs has improved the export outlook for China, we’re expecting less... 27th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2026) The smaller-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil to 4.1%y/y in the first half of February shouldn’t prevent the central bank from kicking off its easing cycle next month. But it does mean that... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for near-term rate hike strengthening While the escalating tensions between China and Japan will provide a small drag on output this quarter, the January activity data were encouraging and suggest that GDP growth will pick up this quarter... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The average tariff rate will decline following the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, but not by enough to materially change the near-term outlook for the economy. That hinges on AI-related investment and... 26th February 2026 · 1 min read
