Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting

We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script

Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

FX Markets Update

RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar

We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Focus

Rate cuts and asset returns

This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury...

12th September 2024 · 18 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit

Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Inflation keeps falling more quickly than Norges Bank’s forecasts but policymakers will be uneasy about the renewed weakening of the krone. We expect them to repeat that the policy rate will be...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB likely to ease policy gradually

There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the policy statement and press conference were largely as expected and do not change our view that...

12th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Focus

The post-election UK economic landscape

The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain...

12th September 2024 · 14 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (September 2024)

There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Otherwise, the policy statement is largely as expected and does not change our view that the ECB will probably...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing...

12th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank will deliver final rate hike in October

The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s...

12th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read