Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump makes Canada okay again Canada has escaped much more lightly than we feared from President Trump’s big announcement, with the import-weighted US tariff likely to be 8% based on current plans and potentially below 5% in the... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland left is policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and while our forecast is for policy settings to remain unchanged throughout 2025, the risks of an earlier resumption of... 2nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply price pressures easing outside of the US The latest PMIs suggest that global industry is heading into Q2 on a weaker footing. Meanwhile, price pressures accelerated sharply in the US but generally eased elsewhere. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to tariffs? Underlying inflation problems in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America and perennial exchange rate worries in Indonesia mean that their central banks are, if anything, likely to react hawkishly... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe in March adds to evidence that the region is recovering from its recent soft patch. In contrast, the drop in Russia’s PMI suggests the economy may... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 25) 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note... 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
