China Rapid Response Stimulus package a step in the right direction In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to benefit from lower interest rates With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is... 23rd September 2024 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slower growth and inflation The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth slowed in advanced economies at the end of Q3, particularly in the euro-zone. Meanwhile, weaker activity seems to be weighing on services price pressures... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the loosening cycle really kicks off We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the likely pace and extent of interest rate cuts and their implications now that the US Fed has joined the party. (See a recording here.) This... 23rd September 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB’s paradox, floods in West Africa and Sahel The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) outlined a “goldilocks” scenario of stronger growth and lower inflation at its MPC meeting this week and, if supply side constraints continue to ease, it may feel... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50 is the new 25 The Summary of Deliberations from this month’s policy meeting showed policymakers at the Bank of Canada are increasingly concerned around the downside risks to inflation and activity. With growth set... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The BoE won’t diverge from the Fed for long It makes sense to us that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates gradually as it has yet to follow the Fed by shifting from worrying less about inflation and worrying more about weak... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fed pivot offers limited relief, holiday spending falls flat Fed rate cuts will be welcomed by Chinese policymakers as they make it easier for property developers to service their dollar debt and reduce the need for PBOC intervention to defend the renminbi. But... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary... 20th September 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
