Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s forward guidance unchanged despite high inflation While inflation in Sweden is higher than the Riksbank’s 2% target, the Bank’s decision to keep its forward guidance unchanged was not a major shock. The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its guidance... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank nearing end of easing cycle The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 100bp, to 8.25%, last night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off. As things stand, our forecast is... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates set to stay on hold this year and next With growth strong and inflation moderating, it came as no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. In its statement, BNM stressed the positive outlook... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada taking a big gamble on rate hikes The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates for a second consecutive time is a clear sign that policymakers are supremely confident in the economy. Considering the strong pace of recent GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely next year The tone of the press statement and conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained dovish. However, there is a hawkish minority on the Council and, as core inflation picks up in the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Pessimism about sterling’s prospects overdone In contrast to some forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we expect sterling to reverse some of its recent losses against the euro... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can Trump hit the 3% growth target after all? The upward revisions to second-quarter GDP growth, which is now estimated to have been 3.0% annualised, suggest that the ambitious growth targets set by the White House may already have been achieved... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1 Although the real economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth still appears to be overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary policy? In our view, EM assets are likely to weather the gradual tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies this year and next. But the effects of this tightening may start to bite further ahead. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: No need to worry about the weak peso Subdued inflation and a relatively low level of foreign currency debt mean the weakness of the Philippine peso, which has recently been hitting multi-year lows against the US dollar, is not a major... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger growth, but inflation to rise only slowly We are lifting our GDP forecasts for both this year and next to reflect the strength of recent data. We are not making any changes to our inflation forecasts though, as price pressures still appear... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise to keep taper plans on the back burner The appreciation of the single currency since the ECB’s last meeting has strengthened the case to delay the formal announcement of asset purchase tapering until October. But with growth strong and... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank on pause despite above-target inflation Economic growth and inflation have been stronger than expected since the Riksbank last met. Despite these developments, policymaker’s concerns about a sharp rise in the krona suggest that the Bank... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
