Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to raise interest rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, and instead left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. With headwinds to the economy mounting and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will higher interest rates hit consumer confidence? The prospect of the first rise in interest rates in a decade has raised concerns about the impact on the already beleaguered consumer. Indeed, there is clearly a risk that the sheer shock of the first... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch No scope for further loosening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations of a rate hold in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming policy meeting on 4th October. Further ahead, some are still expecting... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil price jump fails to lift markets in oil exporters The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts are still on the way Nigerian policymakers kept rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement made it clear that easing is on the way. We expect that the first cut will come in Q1 2018. 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wages, not the forint, the biggest risk facing Hungary’s MPC The move by Hungary’s MPC to loosen monetary policy last week appears to have been aimed at weakening the forint, which looks to us like a step in the wrong direction. The key threat to inflation and... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The markets are too hawkish We believe that the financial markets are wrong to price in the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates twice next year. Admittedly, it is possible that after... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household debt to weigh on economic growth Although the economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth was still overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when interest rates... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates again before year-end Given the economy’s poor growth prospects and the subdued outlook for inflation, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. However, as the central bank... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to press ahead despite inflation "mystery" As the statement and updated projections from this week’s FOMC meeting made clear, a majority of Fed officials remain convinced that the recent weakness of core inflation is mostly due to transitory... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How hard would higher interest rates hit consumers? The prospect of the first rise in interest rates in a decade has raised concerns about what impact it would have on the already beleaguered consumer. But modest rises in interest rates shouldn’t put a... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery looking unbalanced Recently-released GDP data confirmed that Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, with economy growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, the drivers of growth are looking unbalanced. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand to resist pressure to cut interest rates The government is putting pressure on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates in order to weaken the baht, which has been the best performing currency in Asia so far this year. The central... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A solid first year from Governor Lowe Philip Lowe has notched up an impressive scorecard in his first year as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but greater challenges lie ahead. There are reasons to believe that economic growth... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African loosening cycle put on hold The South African Reserve Bank has paused its loosening cycle, but we expect that it will cut rates at its November meeting, by which time inflation will have eased further. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How could tighter ECB policy affect property yields? Tighter monetary policy in the UK, US and euro-zone in the next couple of years will undoubtedly cause risk-free rates to rise. However, given that property’s yield spread against risk-free rates is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
