Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left interest rates unchanged and there was little sign in the central bank’s statement that the central bank is in any rush to adjust policy. With the economy growing at... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed to begin reversing QE and ECB to set out taper plans The US Fed is still on track to start shrinking its balance sheet in the coming month or two, and we think it will raise rates again in December. Meanwhile, the ECB will probably announce in October... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Don’t rule out an interest rate hike next week The incoming economic data have been generally strong and will encourage the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates further to 1.00%, from 0.75%, before the end of this year. We wouldn’t rule out a... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Economic Tendency Indicators (Aug.) Falls Although surveys of overall economic sentiment in both Switzerland and Sweden fell in August, they still point to a healthy pace of GDP growth in both countries. But with inflation much stronger in... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households still living the high life Household consumption grew very strongly in the second quarter, supported by a further decline in the household saving rate and an acceleration in household borrowing. In the tougher banking... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to continue supporting regional growth Economic growth held up well across most of Emerging Asia last quarter. Poor prospects for domestic demand mean growth has probably already peaked in many countries, but with exports likely to remain... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy? Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening cycle While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia easing cycle to be gradual Given the improving outlook for inflation in Indonesia, we think today’s 25 basis point cut in the main policy rate is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We expect one further rate cut this... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
