Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Although the headline inflation rate fell to 1.0% in June, from 1.3%, the uptick in two of the three core inflation measures suggests that some of the temporary factors restraining inflation are now... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year The Fed is unlikely to make any major policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting, but the statement will probably concede that the recent drop back in inflation has been more broad-based than Chair... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Sweden to lead the way with monetary tightening Economic prospects are fairly bright in the Nordic and Swiss countries. Switzerland is benefitting from faster growth in the euro-zone, Swedish firms are optimistic about their prospects, and Norway... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB react to the euro’s rise? The renewed rise in the euro since yesterday’s ECB press conference may increase speculation that the Bank will have to change tack. But we doubt that it will be too worried about the currency at... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to remain in neutral for a while After a marathon policy meeting today, Bank Indonesia confirmed that it was keeping its policy rates unchanged. Quite why the decision took so long is unclear – the decision was exactly what everyone... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB taper announcement likely in October Today’s ECB press conference made us more confident that tapering will come next year. An announcement of the policy now seems most likely to come in October, rather than at the next meeting in... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is the Fed nearly done raising interest rates? The markets remain sceptical that the Fed will continue to normalise interest rates over the next couple of years. But even with inflation still below target, the simple policy rules that the Fed... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed and ECB not the only games in town for EMs EM bond markets have, for the most part, shrugged off the rise in developed market bond yields since the end of June. This strengthens our view that policy normalisation in developed markets is... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further reductions to Board’s inflation forecasts still needed The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy yet again at today’s meeting. But the Board’s inflation forecasts remain far too optimistic even after renewed downgrades. We reiterate our... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December Given the continued weakness of core inflation, we now expect the Fed to delay the next interest rate hike until December. Accordingly, while there is a chance that the statement following next week’s... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
