China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that outflow pressures eased further last month, which seems to have encouraged the People’s Bank to halt its FX sales entirely. This shift is helping to... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown Despite softening home sales, the incoming data point to solid GDP growth in the second quarter, possibly outpacing the 3.7% q/q annualised rate posted in the first quarter. Needless to say, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is an early lift-off from the MPC now off the cards? The surprisingly-dovish reaction of sterling to the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report has led some commentators to conclude that the prospect of an interest rate hike this year is now dead and... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy will become more boring The financial markets need to wake up to the fact that there is going to be fewer interest rate changes than in the past and more policy inertia. This is very much a global development, but the trend... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC starts gradual tightening cycle The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting, at which it hiked interest rates for the first time in nine years, was relatively dovish and adds to the impression that this will be a gradual... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hawks to remain in the minority for a while longer While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remained split on whether to increase interest rates at August’s meeting, the hawks are likely to remain in a minority for a while longer yet. Nonetheless, we... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jul.) After the recent run of softer economic news, the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in July provides reassurance that the economy has maintained the momentum it gathered over Q2. 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, further hikes this year unlikely Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests that its tightening cycle may now be at an end. We now expect rates to be left on hold... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI rate cut to be followed by prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations in cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 6.00% today. But it also acknowledged that inflation would soon be rising again. As such, further... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan giving up on its 2% inflation target? Comments today by BoJ Board Member Funo suggest that the Bank has given up on reaching its inflation target any time soon. Market expectations of policy tightening are likely to recede further as a... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
