India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rebound will force the Fed to tighten further The subdued November CPI figures and the news that the Fed left its inflation and interest rate projections unchanged triggered a mini-rally in the bond markets, but arguably investors should be... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018 Central banks in Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but both accompanying statements left the door open for further easing. With inflation rising in Chile, the window for cuts is... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 We expect Japan’s GDP growth to slow next year as the economy is now operating above capacity. Price and wage pressures should strengthen somewhat but inflation will remain well below the Bank of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives no hints of another hike As was widely expected, December’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting was a bit of a non-event. However, if we are right in expecting the economy to perform more strongly than the MPC expects, that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate hikes next year in the Philippines The Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates unchanged at 3.0% today while also downplaying fears that the economy is overheating. While both financial markets and the consensus are expecting... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long way off The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation rose to an eight-month high in November. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but it nevertheless supports our view that the debate will shift towards monetary... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The PBOC pretends to follow the Fed The People’s Bank has raised the rates it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But unlike in the US, the move seems unlikely to result in higher short-term funding costs for most... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed raises rates, still projects 3 hikes next year As widely expected, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 1.25% and 1.50%. Despite factoring in the imminent fiscal stimulus into their GDP growth... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
