Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Interest rate reforms unlikely to deliver hoped-for gains While the trade war has dominated the headlines, the People’s Bank has been getting on with the unglamorous work of financial reform. It is moving closer to phasing out benchmark lending rates. That... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Account shows ECB divided but dovish The account of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that policymakers were concerned about downside risks to economic activity and, particularly, inflation. This reinforces our view that... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation expectations another worry for ECB The recent fall in financial market measures of inflation expectations may be a bit misleading, and is not matched by a comparable fall in households’ inflation expectations. But it is nonetheless... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further rate cuts in Iceland unlikely The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 4.00% came as a surprise. While it was prompted by a deterioration in the economic outlook, inflation expectations remain high... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Where should interest rates be? A policy rule suggests that for the time being the financial markets may be justified in taking a relatively sanguine approach towards the risk of rising interest rates. But should a Brexit deal be... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA won’t launch QE anytime soon The RBA has made it clear that quantitative easing is its preferred tool once interest rates reach the effective lower bound. But we suspect that the Bank would first cut interest rates from their... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
