Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Synchronised recovery makes the ECB’s job easier The euro-zone’s economic growth is unusually synchronised across the region. Economies in the core continue to do well, while previously-struggling countries like Italy and Portugal are growing again... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank still divided over need for further easing Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive month and, while the accompanying statement gave no hints that rate cuts are being considered, we... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank’s MPC minutes show inflation concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) August policy meeting show that, despite voting to cut interest rates, most members remain cautious about the outlook for inflation. Indeed, with... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Slump in króna points to unchanged Icelandic rates At its last meeting in June, when it cut interest rates for the second time this year, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left the door open to further rate cuts. But given that the króna has slumped... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) New lending declined in July, masking an uptick in underlying credit growth. We doubt this will translate to a sustained pick-up, however, since efforts to slow the build-up of debt mean that market... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose in July, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. As such, we think that there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Rates to remain on hold under new governor Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% was widely expected. The accompanying statement, which was the first to be published since... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian inflation likely to fall by more than most expect Egyptian inflation rose to its highest rate since 1986 in July, but it has been pushed up by a number of one-off factors that will fade over the next six-to-nine months. Indeed, we think inflation has... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to markets: Forget about rate hikes Graeme Wheeler didn’t go out with a bang at his last policy meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as interest rates were left at 1.75% for the ninth month in a row. But he stressed... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
