Latin America Economics Update Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in August, is the first real sign that the headline rate may have now bottomed out, and reinforces... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to stay on hold in Taiwan With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BSP unlikely to change policy stance soon Despite the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the Philippines central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. There was nothing in its statement to suggest BSP is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway a very long way off The Norges Bank today raised its interest rate forecast, implying that it will begin tightening monetary policy mid-way through 2019. By contrast, we think that it will wait until 2020. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Minutes show doves still rule the Riksbank roost Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that at least two of the six Board members would support an extension of the Riksbank’s QE programme beyond the current December end date. But given our forecast for... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s growth optimism won’t translate into tighter policy The Bank of Japan left its upbeat assessment of economic conditions intact at today’s meeting. But inflation remains a long way below its projections, so further reductions in the Board’s forecasts... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - New Governor, new government (?), same dovish story While Grant Spencer will almost certainly decide to keep interest rates on hold at 1.75% at his first meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Thursday 28 th September, the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The 0.8% q/q rise in the production measure of GDP in the second quarter won’t prevent the RBNZ from leaving interest rates at 1.75% at next Thursday’s policy meeting and striking a dovish tone too... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed undeterred by weak core inflation The Fed’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.0-1.25%, as well as its long-anticipated move to formally announce the start of the balance sheet normalisation process next month, came... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa was weaker than expected in August, which supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% at its meeting tomorrow. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC underestimating inflation risks The decision by the Hungarian MPC to ease monetary conditions further today looks like a policy misstep. Mounting capacity constraints and rapid wage growth mean that we think inflation will turn out... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
