Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian central bank tightening policy via the backdoor Although the National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged today, the Bank is using open market operations to tighten monetary conditions. We think that policymakers will return to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: should we worry about rising public FX debt? The sharp rise in the Egyptian government’s foreign currency debt over the past few years is not yet a major cause for concern – the risk of a destabilising fall in the pound appears to be low and the... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tighter monetary policy on the way in Sweden The Riksbank looks very likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then raise interest rates more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than investors expect, causing the krona to... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.4% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, perhaps by 100bp, at its meeting later this month. 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting any increased uncertainty on trade policy... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has rebounded from a disappointing Q1. And the forward-looking balances provided some encouragement that the outlook for the sector has improved. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike on its way, but a dovish shift further ahead? There was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, nor in the latest data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will raise interest rates on August 2 nd. Admittedly, Jonathan... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q1) Despite the upward revision to Q1 GDP growth, the breakdown left the economy looking a little more fragile than before. But there are still reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA, funding costs and mortgage rates The recent rebound in short-term funding costs is not big enough to prompt all banks to raise their mortgages rates by more than a few basis points. But the risk that funding costs rise further is one... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
