India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in September, in large part because the recent sharp fall in food inflation appears to have reversed. More important from the policy perspective, core... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to ease policy further but retain its grip on RMB We think the upcoming reduction in banks’ required reserve ratio will be followed by cuts to the policy rate to ensure that interbank rates fall far enough to boost lending. But despite its growing... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost, Banxico’s dissenter The sharp rally in Brazilian asset prices this week appears to reflect growing expectations that right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will win the presidential election, the first round of which is on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surging interest rates will worsen eventual slowdown The recent strength of the economy appears to be pushing Fed officials in an increasingly hawkish direction. But the corresponding surge in market interest rates this week only reinforces our own view... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in September, has already exceeded the BCB’s newly-published forecasts. And, taken together with comments from policymakers that hint at the start of a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in the Philippines to peak soon Inflation in the Philippines rose to a fresh nine-year high in September, but even if it starts to drop back over the coming months, pressure is likely to remain on the central bank (BSP) to tighten... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pauses, but isn’t done yet The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept rates on hold today, but flagged several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and explicitly shifted to a more hawkish... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s upbeat tone contrasts with downbeat data We doubt that the gap between the Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively upbeat tone and the downbeat feel of the recent economic news will be sustained for long. We suspect the RBA may become a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will the BCB shift to tightening? The timing of the Brazilian central bank’s first interest rate hike is likely to be determined by politics as much as economics. There’s a lot of uncertainty related to the outcome of the Presidential... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
