Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today increased the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with growth... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rebound in non-energy inflation in September will reassure the Riksbank that it is right to be planning to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. We expect underlying inflation to continue... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank raise rates by another 100bps? Based on our forecast for economic growth to slow, there is little prospect of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates by another 100bps over the next year. Even if the economy maintained its recent... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strength of Romanian leu built on shaky foundations The Romanian central bank’s FX intervention this year has kept the leu artificially strong, causing economic imbalances to build. Unless policymakers change course soon and loosen their grip on the... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 16.0% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by higher food inflation but, even so, it probably means that the central bank’s easing cycle will be paused for a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gradual slowdown to continue Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker global demand will drag on regional exports. With domestic demand also likely to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in September will provide yet more ammunition to the hawks within Banxico. But with inflation now likely to have peaked, we still expect the next move in interest... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Good times continue Domestic demand will pick up speed ahead of next year’s sales tax hike, extending one of Japan’s strongest runs of growth since the 1980s, and price pressures will strengthen. But weaker domestic... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The sizeable rise in Chilean inflation to 3.1% y/y in September, taken together with hawkish comments from policymakers, supports our view that rates will begin to rise at the central bank’s meeting... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
