ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s inflation expectations becoming unanchored There is growing evidence that, despite Banxico’s best efforts, inflation expectations in Mexico are becoming unanchored. One consequence is that the monetary policy debate over the coming months will... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A shift in fiscal policy is coming The Ministry of Finance is pushing back against calls to loosen policy. It may have little choice but to oblige, however, if headwinds to growth intensify in the coming quarters as we expect. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more rate rises likely despite today’s hold Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but the hawkish tone of Governor Perry Warjiyo’s press conference and the accompanying policy statement reaffirm our view that further monetary... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) The lower-than-expected rate of CPI inflation means that a hike in interest rates in August is less clear cut. However, we still think that it remains more likely than not. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) June’s softer-than-expected inflation print supports our view that fears of a rate hike are misplaced. We think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year, before cutting its key interest rate... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ lower its inflation target? The Bank of Japan’s admission that inflation won’t reach its 2% target anytime soon has generated speculation that the target will be lowered at the meeting later this month. By contrast, we believe... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates aggressively, more action to come The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) 100bp hike to its policy rate on Saturday, along with today’s devaluation of the rupee, underlines growing concerns about the country’s precarious external position... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it surged to its highest rate in almost five years in June and looks set to remain elevated suggests... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
