Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, strikes neutral tone The statement accompanying yesterday’s decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates made it clear that this did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle. And with inflation and economic... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA indicates further easing may be needed By signalling that inflation will remain below the lower end of its 2-3% target band for the foreseeable future, the RBA signalled that further easing is on the cards. Our view remains that the Bank... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus of Czech MPC to switch from hikes to cuts The statement following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Czech central bank is still concerned about above-target inflation and the need to hike interest rates. But with the economy likely to... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC sitting on the fence, but could jump either way The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) dovish shift at its November meeting leaves the Committee unsure in which direction the next change in interest rates will be. As well as softening its language... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What QE would mean for Australia’s financial assets Against a backdrop of stubbornly-low inflation and rising unemployment, we now think that the RBA will launch quantitative easing (QE) in 2020. Here, we consider the implications for Australia’s... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand cuts rates, more easing likely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its key policy rate to 1.25% today, and with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank will... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will cut further, but not until next year The economic data have been better than the Bank anticipated in their last set of forecasts in August so we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave rates on hold at its meeting on... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey points to a continued drop off in demand for commercial and industrial loans, consistent with business equipment investment contracting again in the fourth... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: central bank still likely to cut rates next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% today, but with growth set to slow sharply over the next few quarters and inflation likely to remain subdued, we think the central... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still has more work to do The RBA reiterated its view that the economy had reached a gentle turning point when it left rates unchanged today. However, we think that the Bank’s forecasts for GDP growth and the labour market... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turning more proactive After keeping interbank rates broadly stable for most of this year, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is starting to take more direct steps to push down borrowing costs. We think this could mark the beginning... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t The surge in retail sales in September increases the chances of a steep slump in spending after the sales tax hike on 1 st October. And the rise in the unemployment rate in September suggests that... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
