Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC: Another hike on the cards in November The new forecasts accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was raised by 25bp – suggest that another hike is likely in November. In 2019, we think that interest rates... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank looking through inflation spike The slightly more dovish language in the Brazilian central bank’s post-meeting statement adds weight to our view that policymakers are untroubled by the recent spike in inflation. And while a... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hinting that rates may rise later While leaving interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9 th August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably acknowledge the recent softening in activity by revising down the GDP... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticking to its guns As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates on hold today but, by upgrading its assessment of economic growth to “strong” in the accompanying policy statement, it hinted that it will keep... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to beef up forward guidance with neutral rate estimate The Bank of England is expected to publish an estimate of the neutral interest rate (i.e. the level at which rates have neither an expansionary nor a contractionary effect on growth and inflation) for... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI decisive amid inflation rise The RBI opted to tighten policy again today against a backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation. The swiftness with which the central bank has responded to the jump in inflation should prevent... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Growth in the broad monetary aggregates and bank lending has continued to accelerate in recent months even as the monetary base contracted, suggesting that the Fed’s balance sheet run-down is having... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB QE to remain an important policy tool Even after Q2’s disappointing euro-zone GDP data, we still think that the ECB is unlikely to extend its net asset purchases into next year. But it might vary the reinvestment of funds from its huge... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recent weakness appears increasingly broad-based Data released in July revealed a wide-spread economic slowdown across most of Sub-Saharan Africa. The available figures mostly suggest that conditions improved more recently, but that growth remained... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The consensus-beating 0.5% monthly rise in GDP means that growth over the second quarter as a whole looks to have been 3.0% in annualised terms. The Bank of Canada largely anticipated this strength... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What next for the Pakistani rupee? The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals no change for a long time to come The Bank of Japan made some technical adjustments to its policy framework today. But its key message, which it emphasised with the introduction of explicit forward guidance, was that the main policy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of inaction ahead The combined message from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy announcement on Tuesday 7 th August and the publication of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday 10 th will probably be that even... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
