Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Today’s surprise 25 basis point interest rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly indicates that the central bank’s main focus will be on supporting the currency and reducing the country’s external... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Today likely to be the last hike in the cycle With inflation set to drop back steadily over the coming months, we think today’s rate hike by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) will be the last in the current cycle. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand set to raise rates in December The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of the accompanying statement suggests that a rate hike is now only a matter of time, as the central bank... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slight fall in Swedish inflation in October will not significantly influence the Riksbank’s decision on the timing of its first rate hike, which we still expect in December. Underlying inflation... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in October was due in large part to a jump in core inflation. With underlying price pressures set to remain elevated, we think the RBI’s tightening cycle still... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates set to stay on hold after surprise hike The decision by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to hike its main policy rates underlines its concerns about the weakness of the currency. Policy over the months ahead will depend on the political... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The rise in regular pay growth to a fresh post-crisis high and weak productivity growth suggests that we are right to think that rates will rise further than is priced into markets next year if a... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor’s fiscal plans would strengthen case for low rates We estimate that Labor’s plans to tighten fiscal policy would dampen consumer spending by around 0.3 percentage points in both 2019 and 2020, shaving 0.2 percentage points off GDP in each of those... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) A renewed drop in food inflation pulled down headline inflation in October, but with core inflation rising again we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Vietnam, regional growth slows The opening up of Vietnam’s economy has gathered pace over the pace couple of months, with the government pressing ahead with a series of reforms which should boost the country’s economic prospects... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
