US Economics Update December rate hike coming As universally anticipated, the Fed left rates on hold today and there was nothing in the policy statement to suggest that officials are wavering from their plans to hike interest rates again in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates set to stay on hold in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia today left interest rates unchanged at 3.25% and gave no hint in its accompanying statement that it is in a rush to change its policy stance anytime soon. Whereas the consensus is... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) We expect the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 to continue over the coming quarters as the economy faces headwinds from tighter monetary policy and a weakening external environment. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ turns a little more hawkish The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted its inflation forecasts a little bit when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But it still signalled that rates won’t rise until... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: More hawkish tone suggests rate hikes are near The relatively more hawkish tone adopted by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference today suggests that the start of a monetary tightening cycle isn’t too far away. We think that... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook The hawkish tone of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” announcements have helped to push up interest rate expectations a little and have fuelled a rise in sterling over the past week. But we doubt... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA's optimism unlikely to materialise The upward revision to the RBA’s growth and inflation forecasts suggest that the Bank is moving closer to tightening policy. But we still think that the downturn in the housing market will result in... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: two years on The benefits of the government’s demonetisation policy should be evident by now, two years after the shock announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being withdrawn. But the promised... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
