Africa Economics Update Kenya’s central bank now likely to pause easing cycle The statement that accompanied today’s decision by the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates by 50bp suggested that the easing cycle has further to run. However, with inflation set to rise in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Underlying inflation in Brazil still soft The sharp jump in headline inflation in Brazil over the past month has masked continued weakness in core inflation. And underlying price pressures should remain fairly subdued over the next 12-18... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The UK (not Japan) likely to tighten policy in August In our view, speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing to dial back its ultra-loose monetary policy is misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to leave its policy rates at rock-bottom levels... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy riding wave of fiscal stimulus The acceleration in GDP growth, to an impressive 4.1% annualised in the second quarter, is principally due to the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed at the start of this year. Unfortunately, there is... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU and US still a long way from a trade deal The easing of trade tensions between the US and EU this week reduces the risk that the US will soon increase tariffs on EU cars, but it still leaves us a long way from any action to reduce trade... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A good start to Q3, chance of Brexit “no deal” falls The first activity surveys for July should provide a final bit of encouragement to the MPC to raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday. Elsewhere, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Equities jump, exports resilient, BoK points to rate hike Asian equities have rebounded over the past week, helped in part by easing fears of a global trade war after the successful trade meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly High expectations for BoJ, doors open for immigration Bond market participants appear convinced that something substantive will come from next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. But if the Bank did anything that was perceived as backing away from the... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank leaves door open to easing The Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement once again sounded hawkish on inflation risks. But it also implied that interest rates could be lowered in 2019, supporting our view that the easing... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More easing coming, China still in US crosshairs Policy easing efforts were expanded this week. Fiscal loosening was given the green light. The People’s Bank adopted a more proactive approach to ensuring that its liquidity injections translate into... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Conditions faltering The latest activity figures suggest that EM growth faltered a bit in the middle of Q2. Consumer spending slowed in April and May, while EM industry seems to have started to lose momentum. Forward... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation in Nigeria, violence in Mozambique The available evidence suggests that fears of a pre-election surge in Nigerian inflation are misplaced. Elsewhere, we doubt that violence will derail gas investment in Mozambique and expect that... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tokyo CPI (Jul.) There was a broad-based rise in price pressures in the capital region last month. But while the rise in energy inflation won’t be sustained, the recent pick-up in underlying inflation has further to... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation rises across region, policy response to vary The latest figures show that inflation rose across Latin America in June and early July, but the reaction from the region’s central banks is likely to differ. Policymakers in Mexico will focus more on... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
