BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with second rate rise in a decade While a vote to raise interest rates on 2nd August is unlikely to be unanimous, we think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead with the second interest rate rise since July 2007. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Pakistan after the election? Imran Khan looks set to be confirmed as Pakistan’s next prime minister just as the economy teeters on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis. His plans to boost social spending will have to be... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to tread carefully in policy review Leaks from the Bank of Japan ahead of next week’s Policy Board meeting have prompted speculation that the Board will adjust its policy framework. Any changes would be intended to address the strains... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate hike likely When hiking interest rates at its most recent meeting in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined in large part by incoming data. With several indicators... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Trump criticism won't derail Fed's plans The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But we expect the post-meeting statement to signal that, despite uncertainty over trade policy and criticism from President... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate hikes on the horizon in Chile The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are moving towards tightening. This supports... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC set to embark on tightening cycle The collective view of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June was that “an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period” would be necessary if the economy evolves in line with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN muddies the water Nigeria’s MPC left its key rate on hold at 14.00%, and hawkish language has led us to remove the rate cuts that we’d previously pencilled in for Q4. Confusingly, the governor also announced unorthodox... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC: further hints that tightening is on the cards The Hungarian MPC’s post-meeting communications reinforced the message that the MPC is inching towards a tightening cycle. For our part, we think inflation is likely to rise further than most think... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
