Global Central Bank Watch Shakier global backdrop won’t deter the Fed & ECB The Fed looks to be on course to raise interest rates by a further 25bp at its December meeting in spite of financial market jitters and disappointing news on the global economy. But as financial... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch On hold for now, but tightening cycle not over yet The recent drop in headline inflation, coupled with the sharp fall in global oil prices, should be enough to ensure that the RBI keeps policy rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold into 2019 Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate at 9.00% today, and we think that they will maintain the current policy stance going into next year. 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack The Philippines to gain from lower oil prices Most countries in the region are net oil importers (Malaysia is the key exception) and should gain from the recent drop in oil prices, with the Philippines likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slumping oil prices another headache for RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold rates steady at next week’s meeting and signal that the first hike is still some way off. With the downturn in the housing market continuing unabated and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hikes rates, Tanzanian nuts, Ethiopian reforms Hawkish rhetoric from South Africa’s MPC suggests that another rate hike is likely in Q1. But the divided MPC’s appetite for further tightening will dissipate if – as we expect – inflation eases in... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dec rate hike still on; Focus turns to Trump-Xi summit Growing concerns about the health of the global economy have prompted speculation that the Fed won’t hike interest rates as aggressively as previously believed. We suspect that the strength of the... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
