Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-Canada spat, Iran sanctioned The diplomatic spat that erupted between Saudi Arabia and Canada this week should have little economic impact, but it does risk undermining investor confidence in Saudi Arabia at a time when the... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today increased its policy rate for the third meeting in a row, and left the door open to further rate hikes. We think at least one further increase in rates... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ says rate hikes are a more distant prospect While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand strongly suggested that the first interest rate hike is further away than it... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s central bank moving in right direction Argentina’s central bank announced a tweak to its monetary policy framework last night which, in time, should help it to gain better control over monetary conditions. It also appears to have stopped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How can Turkey get out of its crisis? The lesson from other countries that have suffered from currency crises is that fiscal and monetary policy will need to tighten, preferably under the auspices of an IMF deal, to stabilise the economy... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds rates, but one hike likely this year The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 1.50% today, but the hawkish shift in the central bank’s tone means a rate hike is now likely before the end of the year. We are revising our end-2018... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in July, in large part due to a fall in food inflation. But core inflation is likely to have remained elevated by the standards of the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves in July suggests that the People’s Bank did not deploy them to defend the renminbi last month. It may do so soon, however, given growing concerns over... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: another emergency rate hike? The Turkish lira has recovered some of its losses in the past few hours, but the plunge in the currency over the past few weeks is now on a scale which has, in the past, prompted the central bank to... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA sounds upbeat, but still a long way from hiking The Reserve Bank of Australia appeared a bit more upbeat on the outlook for the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.5% for the 24 th month today, but it continued to hint that interest... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The small rise in Russian headline inflation, to 2.5% y/y, was driven by higher food inflation, while underlying price pressures still look very soft. We still think the central bank will lower... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt offer suggests a deal is likely A new offer to restructure Mozambique’s debt hints at the shape that an eventual deal may take. An agreement would provide a boost to confidence in an economy that is already starting to recover. 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
