Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Higher inflation to prompt Nordic rate rises The latest data suggest that underlying inflation is picking up in Sweden, Norway and Iceland and we expect the central banks in all three countries to respond by tightening monetary policy. In Sweden... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes still likely in Indonesia Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates on hold is unlikely to mark the end of the current tightening cycle. With the rupiah likely to remain under downward pressure over the... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: New IMF deal a positive, but still not in the clear The announcement on Friday that Ukraine has come to an agreement with the IMF to replace its current bailout package should reduce risks posed by the government’s large upcoming FX debt repayments... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest tightening cycle not over yet The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting show that, despite keeping rates on hold, the MPC continues to place great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly From pot to Poloz After the legalisation of cannabis this week, next week the spotlight turns to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The Bank looks set to raise interest rates for the third time this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s reform agenda, BCB rates hikes The plans outlined by Brazil’s likely next president, Jair Bolsonaro, to tackle some of the causes of Brazil’s productivity problem should be welcomed. But his apparent waning commitment to fiscal and... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Italian tensions will keep Swiss franc in demand Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc increased this week as the Italian Government clashed with the EU over its 2019 Budget. With worries about Italy set to persist, we think that the franc will... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ to slow bond purchases, but not due to US US insistence that provisions against currency manipulation be a part of any future trade deal with Japan has raised suggestions this week that Japanese policymakers, particularly those at the Bank of... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to increase its policy rate by 25bp last night to 2.75%, suggested that a gradual tightening cycle would lie in store over the next 12-18... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to lay groundwork for tightening While the Riksbank, the Norges Bank and the ECB are likely to keep interest rates unchanged next week, we expect them all to signal tighter policy ahead. The recent rebound in underlying inflation... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
