Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still too sanguine about the housing market The Bank of Canada appears increasingly confident in the economic outlook, but we think that its forecasts for GDP growth will prove to be too optimistic. Following this week’s increase in the policy... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft inflation won’t deter Riksbank or Norges Bank According to the minutes of the Riksbank’s July meeting, Sweden’s monetary policymakers were particularly worried about the weakness of non-energy inflation. And with some justification. Data... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Powell takes centre stage The financial markets will have one eye on President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony is likely... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks still in the minority In an otherwise quiet week, the main economic news was the publication of the minutes of June’s ECB meeting. They showed that members of the Governing Council “widely agreed” to update their forward... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: Conditions improved in Q2 Survey and output figures released this week suggested that conditions in Nigeria and South Africa improved in Q2. South African retail sales figures out next week will probably provide more evidence... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in June and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last month’s hike in the repo rate with... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO up in the air, Egypt inflation jumps Reports that Saudi Arabia will scrap the Aramco IPO would, if confirmed, deal a symbolic blow to the Kingdom’s reform plans, but the economic impact should be limited. And the news flow on arguably... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Riksbank Minutes June’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation entirely reflected higher energy inflation. But with domestic price pressures building, and the latest minutes showing that Riksbank officials are increasingly... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, imminent tightening unlikely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and while there was a dissenter favouring a rate hike, rising downside growth risks, benign inflation and limited external... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
