Japan Economics Update BoJ more eager to ease, but won’t cut rates this year The Bank of Japan’s pledge today “to reexamine economic and price developments” at its next policy meeting has further fuelled speculation of a rate cut in October. Governor Kuroda added in his press... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Further rate cuts likely Today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly signals that its main priority at the moment is supporting the struggling economy. While we think further easing is likely, the central bank is likely... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More generous tiering system paves way for rate cut Given that the Swiss National Bank last changed its policy stance in January 2015, this morning’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at -0.75% came as no surprise to us. But its tweak to make... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Another rate cut likely in October The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp last night was accompanied by a statement clearly signalling that policymakers intend to ease monetary policy further. As a result... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed split deepens The Fed voted to cut its key policy interest rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.75% and 2.00%, but the FOMC is more split than ever over what to do next. 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation remained below the target midpoint in August, which we think will allow policymakers to cut their key rate from 6.50% to 6.25% at their meeting tomorrow. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising unemployment heaps pressure on the Riksbank The sharp rise in Swedish unemployment in August serves as further evidence that the Riksbank is unlikely to be able to tighten policy later this year, as it forecasts. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Turkey’s central bank looks set to cut interest rates further over the coming months, but past experience suggests that the easing cycle will be short and that renewed lira weakness will eventually... 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to cut despite rising inflation and trade optimism The Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by another 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. But rising core inflation, the still-solid incoming activity data and the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the ECB really to blame for euro weakness in 2019? Despite what Mr Trump’s tweet yesterday appears to suggest, we don’t think that the ECB is “trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro”. And although we expect the euro to weaken further against... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
