Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ousting of Swedish PM won’t upend plans for rate hikes Today’s ouster of Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven might seem to justify yet another delay to the Riskbank’s policy normalisation plans. But the economy should continue to perform well and might... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks in tightening mode Central banks in Emerging Europe shifted into tightening mode this month as policymakers in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine hiked interest rates in response to pressure on their currencies. The Czech MPC... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank has lift off, SNB to remain grounded The Norges Bank’s “dovish hike” this week caused the krone to weaken, and we think that this is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left policy unchanged, and we suspect that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Global money and credit conditions remain accommodative. Broad money has been expanding at a decent pace and the latest lending data are encouraging. There are, however, some signs that higher... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia slipping into crisis, SARB holds back Zambia’s debt worries escalated this week, and it’s increasingly difficult to see how the country can avoid a full-blown crisis. Elsewhere, yesterday’s MPC vote in South Africa was closer than we’d... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy not undermining bank lending Recent comments by Prime Minister Abe suggest that he is no longer obsessed with overcoming deflation and would like the Bank of Japan to focus more on the financial stability part of its mandate... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Divided MPC narrowly holds rates Today’s split MPC decision in South Africa shows significant minority support for tighter policy. But if the hawks couldn’t swing today’s vote, it’s unlikely that they will succeed in pushing for a... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening to end sooner than most expect The Norges Bank has announced its first interest rate hike in seven years, but we suspect that the tightening process will be over much sooner than policymakers or investors envisage. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB dovish amid concerns about franc strength The Swiss National Bank stuck firmly to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and sounded more downbeat about the outlook, revising down its medium-term inflation forecasts in light of the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
