US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Households are back to their free spending ways, with the strength of May’s retail sales figures implying that second-quarter real consumption growth (and GDP growth for that matter) will now be more... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to put a cap on gold prices in 2018 Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold edged higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates for the second time this year. But we don’t think this is the start of a... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to shift into tightening mode in next 6-9 months The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% was slightly less dovish than its last, supporting our view that the central bank will shift... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in May and looks set to remain elevated suggests that the RBI will follow up this month... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) While the unemployment rate edged down in May, the underutilisation rate held steady suggesting that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market. And in his speech yesterday, Governor Philip... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed signals a step-up in the pace of tightening The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed signals a step-up in the pace of tightening The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: Easing cycles will continue Inflation figures released today by Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola were all weak by recent standards. We think that policymakers will continue their easing cycles in late 2018 and early 2019. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold but rate rises coming The Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today and reiterated that a tight monetary policy stance is still needed, given the strong economy and pressures in the labour market. We think that... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will surging interest rates sink the US economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the narrow monetary aggregates slowed further in April, but there is still little to suggest that this is having much of an impact on the wider economy. Our measure of M3 growth has held up... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening Concerns about financial stability seem to have become more widespread on the Policy Board. But inflation remains far below the 2% target and the prospect of a renewed slowdown in domestic demand... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
