Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from three more years of Abenomics? Mr Abe will remain Prime Minister for another three years. That means fiscal policy will probably be tightened further, monetary policy will remain loose and policymakers may take some further steps... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may not rise until late 2021 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 27th September and will probably acknowledge that GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than it... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch More rate hikes on the way The continued strength of economic growth in the third quarter together with signs that wage growth and underlying inflation are accelerating will maintain pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer The Bank of Japan today reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for a prolonged period. With the sales tax hike looming and inflation set to remain below target for longer, we think that the Bank will... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing loose policy to an end The National Bank of Hungary’s revamp of its monetary policy framework announced today was characteristically complex. But the key point is that the Bank is paving the way for policy tightening and we... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth may play stronger role in ECB policy The latest comments from the ECB’s Benoît Coeuré suggest that future guidance about the pace of policy tightening might hinge on developments in wage growth. In our view, this would be a positive... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey hikes, Czech rates in focus, Hungary in trouble The aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey on Thursday has soothed the markets, but President Erdogan’s comments today reinforce our fears that he will put pressure on the central bank to reverse... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
