India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in November and, taken alongside the drop in CPI inflation last month as well as the appointment of an ally of Prime Minister Modi as the new governor of the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s growing caution raises chance of later rate hikes While the ECB has ended its net asset purchases, it plans to reinvest funds from maturing securities for a long time to come and has stressed that any future rate hikes will depend on a build-up of... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Headline inflation to fall sharply in 2019 Headline inflation is set to decline in the coming months, due to the recent slump in oil prices, and we think it will remain below 2% in most advanced economies next year. Tightening labour markets... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank preparing for rate cuts in early 2019 The statement accompanying today’s decision by Turkey’s central bank to leave policy on hold suggests that the MPC is contemplating rate cuts. With inflation falling back and political pressure on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to end tightening cycle next year In today’s statement, the Norges Bank clearly signalled that an interest rate hike in March is a near certainty. But beyond that, we think that lower oil prices will prompt the Bank to end its... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB takes a dovish turn The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting suggests that interest rates will be left unchanged over the next few months at least. We think a tightening cycle will start... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines central bank: next move to be a cut The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates unchanged today, but with inflation set to fall back sharply over the coming months and policymakers sounding increasingly dovish on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka political crisis: growth to slow, rates to rise With the political crisis in Sri Lanka showing no sign of coming to an end, we are changing our GDP growth and interest rate forecasts for next year. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Strong economy keeps gradual tightening on track The recent volatility in financial markets will not stop the Fed raising rates at its meeting next week. A bigger concern for the Fed is the renewed weakness in core inflation, which may prompt some... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Appointment of Modi loyalist a worrying step for RBI The first briefing from the RBI’s new governor, Shaktikanta Das, sought to provide assurance that the central bank will continue to prioritise inflation fighting. But his background at the finance... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland tightening cycle not over yet The Central Bank of Iceland left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly that hikes are on the horizon. We think that it will raise interest rates twice next year, leaving the deposit rate... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in core inflation in November further decreases the chances of the Riksbank raising rates next week. Nonetheless, we still expect the first hike in February as underlying inflation is... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Speculation about policy tightening premature Recent comments by Governor Kuroda and analysis published by the Bank of Japan have again fuelled speculation that policy may be tightened soon. But with the economic expansion sputtering, the... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
