Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unlikely to respond to FX weakness EM currencies have come under pressure over the past few days as Turkey’s crisis has escalated, but history suggests that such sentiment-driven sell-offs tend to be short-lived. We wouldn’t expect the... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Growth in bank lending picked up last month to the fastest pace this year. However, a further slowdown in other forms of credit, including shadow financing, mean that broad credit growth continued to... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in July was due in most part to a sharp fall in food inflation. Core inflation remained elevated. As such, we think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Uganda Interest Rates Policymakers at the Bank of Uganda kept the policy rate unchanged at their meeting this morning and we don’t expect any rate cuts for the remainder of this year. 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Turkey’s banks? The collapse in the lira has raised concerns about the health of Turkey’s banking sector. Banks’ dollar bonds yields and interbank interest rates are already pointing towards some stress, and these... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB won’t welcome franc’s safe haven boost The renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc this week as investors sought out safe haven assets will not have been welcomed by the SNB. But the franc is still weaker than it has been over the past few... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Cuts to official policy rates are coming soon Market interbank rates have now converged with those offered by the People’s Bank in its lending operations. We think the central bank will soon start cutting these official policy rates in order to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy slowed last quarter in year-on-year terms after expanding in Q1 at the fastest pace since 2011. Looking ahead, with headwinds from tightening monetary conditions building and... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Jokowi to stand again, tightening cycle to lose steam Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) confirmed earlier this week that he will be seeking a second term as president, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2014 election, which saw him narrowly edge past... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana Bank rescue, Mozambique debt talks The rescue of five small failing banks in Ghana should help to improve the (fragile) health of the sector and, in time, should help to support a recovery in credit growth. Elsewhere, the resumption of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ's cold feet, consumer spending boycott Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan was close to hiking rates twice this year. But the decision to allow ten-year yields to rise a bit further above the 0% target placated the hawks on the... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Divining in different directions The chances that interest rates in Australia will rise a bit earlier than we expect have grown this week while it has become more likely that interest rates in New Zealand will be unchanged for longer... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
