Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Nov.) November’s falls in headline and core inflation highlight the lack of price pressures in Switzerland. And with GDP growth also weak, the SNB looks set to keep policy looser for longer than investors... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would it take to convince the Fed to pause early? On balance, we still think that the Fed will raise rates twice in the opening six months of 2019, taking the fed funds target range to between 2.75% and 3.00%. The renewed weakness of core inflation... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hikes next year look unlikely While the Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate today for the first time in a year, this is unlikely to mark the start of a tightening cycle. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Swiss GDP (Q3) The very weak Swiss Q3 GDP data make us more confident that the SNB will keep monetary policy ultra-loose longer than investors expect. Meanwhile, the contraction in the Swedish economy in Q3 suggests... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions underline recent strength The revised GDP data for the past decade that have just been released suggest that recent growth has been further above India’s sustainable rate than previously thought. This underlines why the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher interest rates in Italy to offset fiscal stimulus We doubt that the recent rally in Italian government bonds will last. And higher yields are already feeding through to higher borrowing costs in the private sector. We think that this will offset any... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to present cautious message as oil prices slump We suspect that the Bank of Canada will deliver a more dovish message next week than investors seem to expect. 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
