US Economics Update Fed hikes, but less confident about future tightening The Fed hiked the fed funds target range by 25bp today, to between 2.25% and 2.50%, as most still expected, but tempered the move by slightly revising down Fed officials' projections for additional... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Key calls for 2019, and how we differ from consensus We expect Emerging Asia to grow at its weakest rate in 2019 since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With inflation also set to drop back, the regional tightening cycle is likely to come to an end... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Thanks to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the fall in inflation in November is likely to be the precursor to a larger fall in December. Inflation could even reach the 2% target, bringing some... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fall in inflation gives central banks breathing space The fall in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month was surprisingly sharp, which in part was due to lower oil prices but also (and more unexpectedly) a dip in food inflation. One... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No further tightening likely in Thailand Today’s rate hike by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is unlikely to mark the start of a prolonged tightening cycle. In fact, with growth likely to slow in 2019 and inflation set to remain very weak, we... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints that tightening is on its way The statement accompanying today’s Hungarian MPC meeting provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are shifting towards the start of a tightening cycle. For our part, we think that interest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: paving the way for a weaker pound The past month has brought signs that Egyptian policymakers are trying to simplify the country’s exchange rate setup, which is ultimately likely to result in a weaker pound. Over the past six months... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch An uncomfortable wait for Brexit clarity In normal times, the MPC would be preparing the ground for another interest rate hike. After all, pay growth has picked up far more sharply than the Bank of England had anticipated. But as it is still... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB outdoves itself, Nordics more hawkish Central bank meetings in Norway and Iceland this week suggested that interest rate hikes are on the horizon in both economies. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank again signalled that it won’t raise... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank lays ground for another hike Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforced our impression that another hike in interest rates is likely over the next few months. We now expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand to hike rates, peso to fall further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to raise its policy rate for the first time since 2011 at its meeting on Wednesday due to concerns about accelerating credit growth. Meanwhile, having widened to a... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
