UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Turkish contagion, BoJ’s helping hand A former BoJ executive suggested that the Bank of Japan may tolerate 10-year yields rising to 0.4% even while keeping its official target at zero. This would lift trading income, increase returns on... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Credibility is key for the RBI The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting – at which interest rates were hiked again – show that the MPC has placed great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Credit has continued to expand steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months and is rising particularly strongly in the US. Meanwhile, the currency crisis in Turkey has so far had only a... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation moderated in July after hitting a five-year high in June. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle still has a little further... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
