Asia Economic Outlook Weakest growth in a decade, rate cuts by year-end Emerging Asia this year is likely to grow at its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. Although fiscal policy should help to support growth in most of the region, this is likely to be offset... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, but easing cycle not far away The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold suggests that policymakers may have been unnerved by the recent wobble in the lira. But with inflation likely to ease further, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Whatever the Bank of England thinks about yesterday’s failed Brexit vote, it will surely be pretty content with the news this morning that inflation has fallen to within a whisker of its 2% target for... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Tightening remains a distant prospect The Bank is getting a bit more concerned about the impact of prolonged monetary easing on financial stability. But with economic activity and inflation set to fall short of its forecasts yet again... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Flirting with zero Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has been flirting with zero since the start of the year. Not so long ago, it was climbing towards the 0.2% ceiling of the “tolerance band” managed by the Bank of... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in December further diminishes the case for rate hikes in the near term. The RBI’s new governor seems keen to lower rates but, with core inflation still... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what can we learn from past easing cycles? Past experience suggests that the macroeconomic conditions are now in place for the Turkish MPC to start reversing last year’s monetary tightening. We expect the one-week repo rate to be cut by 50bp... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in December, further undermining the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But the appointment of a dovish new governor of the RBI means we are... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s thinking full of holes Governor Stephen Poloz struck a positive tone following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week. Although officials remain optimistic, we think there are flaws in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How patient will the Fed be? With financial markets rebounding this week and the incoming domestic activity data relatively strong, we still expect the “patient” Fed to raise interest rates this year. But core PCE inflation looks... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank will tighten very slowly Recent developments suggest that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will tightening monetary policy more slowly than we had previously anticipated. This is partly because we have revised down our... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The stock market slump is not over In spite of the recovery that has taken hold since the turn of the year, we think that equities have further to fall. It is well known that UK stock indices are heavily weighted towards energy... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB losing its optimism The account of the ECB’s last meeting confirms that the Governing Council was less confident about the economic outlook, even in mid-December. While policy loosening is very unlikely for now, the... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
