China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey hikes, Czech rates in focus, Hungary in trouble The aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey on Thursday has soothed the markets, but President Erdogan’s comments today reinforce our fears that he will put pressure on the central bank to reverse... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions push Russian central bank to tighten The tone of the Russian central bank’s press conference suggests that today’s interest rate hike was a pre-emptive move against an expected tightening of US sanctions, not the start of a cycle. As... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hawkish, Zambia’s debt troubles There are growing suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but the weakness of the latest activity data and of inflation expectations mean we... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although CPIF inflation was above target in August, the further decline in non-energy inflation will worry the Riksbank. If it remains soft, then the Bank will probably keep rates on hold until early... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) The moderation in wholesale price inflation in August was in large part due to another drop in food inflation. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s plans unaffected by signs of slowdown The ECB today confirmed its intention to normalise policy gradually, expressing very little concern about signs of an economic slowdown. Given growing risks and economic uncertainty, the first... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC in no hurry to hike again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not appear to be in a rush to raise interest rates again soon. Indeed, our assumption that a Brexit deal will be struck at the eleventh hour will probably... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
