Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance

The surge in inbound tourism in general and in Chinese tourist arrivals in particular means that the Wuhan coronavirus may knock off around 0.5%-pt from GDP growth in the first quarter. Amid mounting risks of a slump in tourism, we remain comfortable with our below-consensus forecast that GDP will shrink this year. The flipside is that the Bank of Japan may retain its easing bias throughout this year.

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