US Economics Update Fed stands pat amid election uncertainty With the markets still relatively calm amid the ongoing election uncertainty, the Fed took the predictable decision to stand pat today. However, if the election results in a divided government – as... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero As expected, the Norges Bank did not set off any fireworks this morning, and the decision to leave its key interest rate on hold at zero was never in doubt. The economy is likely to prove... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion Back in June, we predicted that the Bank of England would expand quantitative easing (QE) by a further £350bn over the following 18 months (consensus £100bn). By announcing an extra £150bn of QE today... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank to resume easing next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with a new set of restrictions to combat a second outbreak of the virus dragging on the economy, we doubt this marks... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate edged up to 11.9% y/y in October and is likely to rise further over the coming months. This, combined with the recent sharp falls in the lira, means that the central... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - QE will probably be extended beyond April The RBA didn’t disappoint when it cut interest rates and launched quantitative easing today. And even though it turned more optimistic about the economic outlook, we suspect it will expand its... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation may not weaken all that much Underlying inflation bounced back more strongly last quarter than we had anticipated and with the economy now opening up again, we’ve revised up our near-term forecasts. However, the Reserve Bank of... 30th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB makes big promises for December The ECB left its policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, but explicitly stated that it would “recalibrate” them in December. We think this will include an increase in the size and duration of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Don’t expect any fireworks next week The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday and will probably reiterate that it is in no rush to hike. However, given the backdrop of rising house... 29th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ to stay the course The Bank of Japan today revised up its outlook for GDP growth for the next couple of years, reducing the already scant chances of additional easing even further. 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
