Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank too optimistic on GDP growth Following today’s monetary policy announcement, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates in March. But we think that it is still too optimistic about prospects for the economy this... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but the slightly more dovish statement supports our view that rate cuts will creep onto its agenda later this year. Whereas the... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates this year Today’s decision from the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep rates on hold, and the downgrade in its forecasts, adds weight to our view that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2019. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to reverse course in 2020 The Fed will leave rates unchanged next week and may well include references to being “patient” in the policy statement and post-meeting press conference, to signal more clearly that a March rate hike... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan.) Economic growth is set to slow after October’s sales tax hike while inflation will remain well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. But with high hurdles to additional policy easing, we think that the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Does the Fed have the tools to fight the next recession? There are good reasons to believe the next recession will be modest, which means that, even though the nominal interest rate would probably hit the near-zero lower bound again, the Fed should have the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi’s successor likely to be more hawkish Whoever becomes the next ECB President is likely to be more “hawkish”, and perhaps less effective, than Mario Draghi. That may not matter if the economy recovers from its recent soft patch, allowing... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US policy rates to fall in 2020 The Fed’s promise to be “patient” is why we now forecast just one additional rate hike in the first half of this year, with the fed funds rate peaking at 2.50-2.75%. But we are increasingly confident... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish fiscal boost to have a limited impact Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
