Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of the CBRT reshuffle The dismissal of Turkey’s central bank governor over the weekend increases the chances of aggressive cuts in interest rates in the near-term. But it has also raised the risk of larger currency falls... 8th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No more “boring” SNB, Riksbank in denial The Swiss 10-year bond yield dropped to a record low this week, and the prospect of further easing by the Swiss National Bank suggests that the rally has further to run. Meanwhile, although the... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth accelerated to a decade high in May, as past increases in interest rates boosted portfolio demand, but the more recent renewed slump in rates will trigger a slowdown in the second... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Why ‘yield curve control’ wouldn’t work for the SNB Swiss pension funds and life insurers have been among the losers from negative interest rates, but the SNB is unlikely to follow the Bank of Japan’s example of targeting long-term bond yields to limit... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
