Global Economics Update Will households spend the extra money they have saved? One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation The possibility of the US and EU imposing sanctions on Turkey has increased this week and a further escalation of tensions could undermine the gains from the recent shift to more orthodox economic... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB extends implicit yield curve control The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to extend lending programmes With the ongoing wave of infections in Japan the most severe yet, the Bank of Japan will probably extend its lending facilities beyond March 2021 at the upcoming meeting. But we don’t expect it to... 10th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control The key change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was its commitment to “keep interest rates low across the yield curve”. This is in line with our view that, even as the economy rebounds... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Tinkering at the margins We expect the Fed to keep its main policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. But officials are set to unveil new guidance on their asset purchases, most likely pledging to maintain them... 9th December 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) The surge in mortgage lending to its highest level since before the financial crisis has come despite banks curbing riskier loans. If we are right to think that house prices will dip, that should... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in November still leaves it consistent with solid growth in consumer spending. As such, the survey is consistent with our view that the third wave will slow... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking Daily cases have started creeping higher again at the national level driven by a renewed rise in infections in Tokyo and Osaka. We suspect that both cities will soon ask citizens to stay at home and... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
