Bank leaves its options open The Bank of Canada has become more concerned about deteriorating global conditions and, given our view that global growth will slow further, we continue to expect the Bank to cut interest rates in... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors are right to price in looser policy in Sweden The fact that investors are now pricing in looser monetary policy in Sweden highlights the extent to which the Riksbank has fallen behind the curve. Anything less than a substantial dovish shift in... 4th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates still likely to fall further The RBA sounded a little more optimistic when it left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. But with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market set to weaken further, we still expect... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Spotlight turns to the Bank After a week of mixed data, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight. We expect the Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged and present a more dovish statement than in July. 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to (finally) turn more dovish next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday next week, we expect it to adopt a more dovish stance and to slash its forecasts for the economy... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the market done the ECB’s job for it? More policy loosening is on the way. But the case for the ECB to re-launch its public sector purchase programme is increasingly difficult to make given the recent rally in bonds. Meanwhile, we are... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more cuts likely The Bank of Korea sounded more bearish on the outlook for the economy even as it left rates on hold today. As such, we continue to expect more easing this year, with another 25bps cut in October. 30th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank to set the stage for October rate cut We expect the Bank of Canada to present a more dovish policy statement next week, setting the stage for an interest rate cut in October. 28th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further easing in the pipeline in Iceland Given the deep downturn in the tourism sector, this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates by a further 25bps came as no surprise to us. We think that... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Despite drought, next rate move will be a cut Kenya’s drought will probably push inflation above the CBK’s target range in Q4. But bank will likely look through this spike, as it did in 2017. We think the next rate move will be a 50bp cut in Q4... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not done yet The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t learned much on the state of the economy since its last meeting and we expect it to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting on Tuesday 3rd September. However, we... 27th August 2019 · 7 mins read
