Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What could the SNB do to ease policy further? The more dovish than expected stance adopted by the ECB at today’s monetary policy meeting supports our view that the SNB will also keep rates lower for longer. And if the euro-zone economy... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Probability of more QE this year is rising The ECB did more than expected today, announcing another round of TLTROs and pledging to leave policy rates on hold at least until next year. But with economic growth and inflation likely to remain... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada drops pledge to hike further The Bank of Canada has finally pulled its head out of the sand and acknowledged that the deteriorating economy no longer justifies higher interest rates in the near term. Although the Bank still... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, easing cycle to start in June The hawkish tone of the Turkish central bank’s recent communications meant that a rate cut was never likely at today’s meeting. But with inflation set to fall further in the coming months and the... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in February even if, as we suspect, it rose a touch due to higher food inflation. As such, the RBI will almost certainly cut policy rates again, perhaps... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q4) Subdued GDP growth in final quarter of 2018 sets the tone for softer growth this year. And given that the RBA has already adopted a neutral stance, we now suspect it may cut rates as soon as August. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Hurdles for further easing are high While there are mounting signs that a global downturn is underway, concerns about the impact of low policy rates on the health of the banking sector will probably prevent the BoJ from cutting its... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but with price pressures very weak and growth set to slow, we think that rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns about... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t ignore decent pay growth forever One reason why we think the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates further than most forecasters expect – assuming a Brexit resolution is reached – is decent pay growth. We think it will... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
