Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for extended hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% in a unanimous decision, and with the economy set to rebound further in spite of a growing third wave of the coronavirus, further... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Vaccines won’t preclude looser policy The encouraging news about vaccines has led us to expect most restrictions in advanced economies to be removed by Q2 next year, allowing them to embark on steeper recoveries towards their pre-virus... 25th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Retail and office pricing still unattractive Property valuations improved for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q3, following another sharp fall in equities earnings yields. But this was the smallest rise in valuation scores this year and... 24th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Household saving could remain permanently elevated The huge amount of personal savings built up during the pandemic, if unleashed, represents perhaps the biggest upside risk to the economy over the coming year or two. But even once the spread of the... 24th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Vaccines allow UK assets to catch up After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the... 24th November 2020 · 12 mins read
RBA Watch RBA probably won’t extend QE any further next year The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t make any policy changes at its meeting on 1st December. And with the labour market improving much faster than the Bank had anticipated and the prospect of a vaccine... 24th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update 13(3) decision could be net positive for the economy The Treasury’s decision not to extend the majority of the Fed’s emergency lending facilities beyond the end of the year is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy given that those facilities... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Minkgate fallout; Riksbank to expand QE next week The political wrangling in Denmark following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country’s mink farms shifted up a gear this week and the economic damage from the lockdown in North Jutland is racking up... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB “recalibrate” TLTROs? At its December meeting, the ECB is very likely to announce additional TLTRO operations and it may well make their terms even more favourable for banks. In this Update, we review the ways that the ECB... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to pre-empt ECB easing next week The Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at zero next Thursday (26th November). But with the economy heading south, and the ECB gearing up to ease again, we think there is a good chance... 19th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Growth in narrow measures of the money supply has continued to edge higher as demand and saving deposits continue to accumulate but, with growth in broader measures of money and bank lending dropping... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The latest data suggest that the broad-based acceleration of China’s economy continued in October. Policy stimulus continued to boost investment and industrial output while growth in real retail sales... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
