Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US market implications of the Fed’s policy shift Although investors have become more dovish about the outlook for US monetary policy in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we think that they are underestimating future rate cuts given the grim... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit decision will stir the MPC one way or another How Brexit pans out will dictate the direction and timing of the next move in interest rates, so it was unsurprising that the Monetary Policy Committee kept a low profile today by voting unanimously... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no more tightening, but cuts unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today, and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland and Norway Policy Decisions (Mar.) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank, to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, came as no surprise, but policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than expected. While the Bank is now likely to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank to keep policy on hold Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged today at 1.375% against a backdrop of weak economic growth and low inflation, and gave no indication in its statement that it will... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cut still likely in May The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) left rates unchanged today at Governor Diokno’s first meeting, but also sounded more hawkish than we had anticipated. Nevertheless, with inflation set to fall... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank pledges continuity The wording of last night’s Brazilian monetary policy statement provides further evidence that the appointment of new governor Roberto Campos Neto won’t cause much of a change to monetary policy. With... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed signals extended patience & announces end of QT The Fed’s revised economic projections, which now imply no rate hikes this year, together with the announcement that it will halt its balance sheet run-down in September, came as a positive surprise... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will monetary policy rescue E-Z peripheral bonds? We expect bonds in the euro-zone’s “periphery”, particularly in Italy, to come under renewed pressure in the rest of 2019 as growth remains weak and political risks creep up. However, we think that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Iceland appear even less likely As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
