India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Review probably won’t result in major policy changes The Bank of Japan’s decision today to extend its emergency loan facility by six months didn’t come as a surprise. The announcement that the Bank would soon conduct an assessment of its easing strategy... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for interest rates in Indonesia? Indonesia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged today, but given the poor outlook for growth, further easing is likely early next year. 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tweaks its forward guidance The Fed tweaked the guidance for its asset purchases in the statement issued after the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting, with the new language implying those purchases could continue for longer than... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s swings leave more downside than upside The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) China’s economy continued to accelerate across all fronts in November. We expect output to remain above-trend in the coming quarters, even as tailwinds from stimulus and exports start to ease. 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
